Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 1.764641e-01 0.212438 0.251116 0.295497 0.344727 0.397386 0.457697
2025-02-16 1.220373e-01 0.168647 0.222996 0.289813 0.368548 0.457267 0.563687
2025-02-23 8.351083e-02 0.133833 0.197589 0.281257 0.385279 0.507726 0.660141
2025-03-02 5.337350e-02 0.101841 0.169202 0.263745 0.387545 0.539249 0.734367
2025-03-09 3.791476e-02 0.085697 0.157983 0.265380 0.411974 0.597230 0.841359
2025-03-16 2.466661e-02 0.068595 0.141844 0.257463 0.422033 0.636330 0.925284
2025-03-23 1.890069e-02 0.062455 0.140805 0.270041 0.459425 0.711056 1.055509
2025-03-30 1.267962e-02 0.052741 0.131953 0.269488 0.477708 0.760510 1.153931
2025-04-06 8.397914e-03 0.045066 0.124897 0.270415 0.497343 0.811609 1.254976
2025-04-13 5.835342e-03 0.040266 0.122044 0.277376 0.525535 0.874574 1.372452
2025-04-20 4.109460e-03 0.036750 0.120914 0.286743 0.557254 0.942758 1.497734
2025-04-27 2.763222e-03 0.033330 0.119223 0.294705 0.586762 1.008169 1.620074
2025-05-04 1.394383e-03 0.027766 0.111751 0.292021 0.600080 1.051763 1.714877
2025-05-11 7.465886e-04 0.024645 0.109217 0.297944 0.627002 1.115287 1.837968
2025-05-18 2.623170e-04 0.020489 0.102899 0.295952 0.640837 1.159942 1.935584
2025-05-25 2.036257e-05 0.015072 0.091068 0.281628 0.633355 1.172731 1.988646
2025-06-01 2.163101e-07 0.013028 0.088482 0.285559 0.656227 1.230675 2.105636
2025-06-08 NaN 0.009970 0.081144 0.278523 0.659803 1.259444 2.181470
2025-06-15 NaN 0.009585 0.083411 0.292524 0.700197 1.344550 2.338489
2025-06-22 NaN 0.007846 0.079558 0.292384 0.715577 1.391592 2.441419
2025-06-29 NaN 0.006479 0.076493 0.293620 0.733237 1.442237 2.549941
2025-07-06 NaN 0.005770 0.076132 0.301117 0.762281 1.510824 2.685022
2025-07-13 NaN 0.005309 0.076805 0.311089 0.795978 1.586987 2.831679